Fear and Loathing On The Campaign Trail ’16

The first Republican Presidential Debate- drew a record for a primary debate with 24 million views. No doubt a lot of those viewers tuned in due to the presence of The Donald and his first debate. I also think a lot of people watched because they do have an interest in what is going on in the country and a dissatisfaction with the way things have been going. More folks tuned into the debate than any of last years World Series games or this years NBA Finals games. It will be interesting to see what the ratings are for the next debate.

I am in agreement with Quinn. If the GOP nominate for example a ticket of Jebster/Walker they may as well go belly up and join the Whigs. Two old white men are not going to win it in the America of 2016. I think Jeb needs to just go away. We have already taken that ride twice with mixed results, no reason to go there again. Any ticket that has Jeb on it will go down in flames in November 2016. That isn’t to say Jeb a terrible candidate. It just stinks to be him. He has a lot to overcome. I think America is tired of the Game of Thrones the Clinton’s and Bush’s are playing and want a fresh, young face.

It was only the first of many debates. No one will be dropping out of the race soon. I am glad there  is a lot of candidates running. This looks to me to be the best GOP field since Dutch Reagan ran unopposed back in 1984. There is a reason Willard Romney didn’t make a run this time. Sure, with name recognition he would do alright at this point but he would have failed to get far in the end.

Hard to just judge by one debate. I don’t think anyone knocked themselves out of contention the other night. I think a big winner is going to be Carly Fiorina in the Kid’s Table Debate. She outshined the others and is ready for the big table. Donald Trump was Donald Trump. Two days later he is still getting attention due to his debate comments but it will eventually run it’s course. He won’t be the nominee. Right now he’s entertaining for sure, he will say what he thinks, or what he thinks will cause a stir but after awhile the shock effect will wear off. Ignore the polls of the moment on him. I also don’t see the Chris Christie Show-being a big hit in most of the county. How will his act play in Iowa or South Carolina? Not well I would think.

I know Quinn is impatient and wants the field narrowed. Seventeen candidates probably too many but the field will shrink. A lack of success in Iowa and New Hampshire and the lack of $$$$$ will send some of them home. I expect the GOP nominee to be one of the following candidates-[in no order] Cruz, Rubio, Walker, Paul or the Jebster. I think a few other candidates will hang around for a little while into the primary season before moving in- Kasich, Fiorina and of course The Donald.

Back to my earlier thought about the GOP running two old white guys. Again, that won’t work. I think if you get a Walker, Paul or Jebster heading the ticket, the VP candidate has to come from either Cruz, Rubio or Fiorina. If Cruz or Rubio get the nomination, I think Governor Kasich of Ohio comes into the mix. Geographically Kasich makes a lot of sense.  No Republican has won without winning Ohio and Ohio has been one of the key swing states in recent elections.

Totally agree with Quinn on Hillary. If she loses the nomination this time it will be the political epic fail of all times. Obama in 2008 while going into the race as an underdog was a strong candidate. Hillary blew that one of course but Hillary isn’t going to lose the nomination to Bernie Sanders. But Hillary I think can be beaten. She has a lot of negatives. But if it’s Clinton v Bush II-she will waltz to a victory.

The next 15 months leading up the 2016 election should be interesting. Many twists and turns ahead. Buckle your seat belts.